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You're reading from  Practical Predictive Analytics

Product typeBook
Published inJun 2017
Reading LevelIntermediate
PublisherPackt
ISBN-139781785886188
Edition1st Edition
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Ralph Winters
Ralph Winters
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Ralph Winters

Ralph Winters started his career as a database researcher for a music performing rights organization (he composed as well!), and then branched out into healthcare survey research, finally landing in the Analytics and Information technology world. He has provided his statistical and analytics expertise to many large fortune 500 companies in the financial, direct marketing, insurance, healthcare, and pharmaceutical industries. He has worked on many diverse types of predictive analytics projects involving customerretention, anti-money laundering, voice of the customer text mining analytics, and health care risk and customer choice models. He is currently data architect for a healthcare services company working in the data and advanced analytics group. He enjoys working collaboratively with a smart team of business analysts, technologists, actuaries as well as with other data scientists. Ralph considered himself a practical person. In addition to authoring Practical Predictive Analytics for Packt Publishing, he has also contributed two tutorials illustrating the use of predictive analytics in Medicine and Healthcare in Practical Predictive Analytics and Decisioning Systems for Medicine: Miner et al., Elsevier September, 2014, and also presented Practical Text Mining with SQL using Relational Databases, at the 2013 11th Annual Text and Social Analytics Summit in Cambridge, MA. Ralph resides in New Jersey with his loving wife Katherine, amazing daughters Claire and Anna, and his four-legged friends, Bubba and Phoebe, who can be unpredictable. Ralph's web site can be found at ralphwinters.com
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Accuracy measures


Using the residuals, we can measure the error from the predicted and actual values based upon three popular accuracy measures:

  • Mean absolute error (MAE): This measure takes the mean of the absolute values of all of the errors (residuals)

  • Root-mean-squared error (RMSE): The root mean square error measures the error by first taking the mean of all of the squared errors, and then takes the square root of the mean, in order to revert back to the original scale. This is a standard statistical method of measuring errors.

Note

Both MAE and RMSE are scale-dependent measures, which means that that they can be used to compare problems with similar scales. When comparing accuracy among models with different scales, other scale-independent measures such as MAPE should be used.

  • Mean percentage error (MAPE): This is the absolute difference between the actual and forecasted value, expressed as a percentage of the actual value. This is intuitively easy to understand and is a very popular measure...

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Practical Predictive Analytics
Published in: Jun 2017Publisher: PacktISBN-13: 9781785886188

Author (1)

author image
Ralph Winters

Ralph Winters started his career as a database researcher for a music performing rights organization (he composed as well!), and then branched out into healthcare survey research, finally landing in the Analytics and Information technology world. He has provided his statistical and analytics expertise to many large fortune 500 companies in the financial, direct marketing, insurance, healthcare, and pharmaceutical industries. He has worked on many diverse types of predictive analytics projects involving customerretention, anti-money laundering, voice of the customer text mining analytics, and health care risk and customer choice models. He is currently data architect for a healthcare services company working in the data and advanced analytics group. He enjoys working collaboratively with a smart team of business analysts, technologists, actuaries as well as with other data scientists. Ralph considered himself a practical person. In addition to authoring Practical Predictive Analytics for Packt Publishing, he has also contributed two tutorials illustrating the use of predictive analytics in Medicine and Healthcare in Practical Predictive Analytics and Decisioning Systems for Medicine: Miner et al., Elsevier September, 2014, and also presented Practical Text Mining with SQL using Relational Databases, at the 2013 11th Annual Text and Social Analytics Summit in Cambridge, MA. Ralph resides in New Jersey with his loving wife Katherine, amazing daughters Claire and Anna, and his four-legged friends, Bubba and Phoebe, who can be unpredictable. Ralph's web site can be found at ralphwinters.com
Read more about Ralph Winters