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Published inNov 2022
PublisherPackt
ISBN-139781803246802
Edition1st Edition
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Manu Joseph
Manu Joseph
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Manu Joseph

Manu Joseph is a self-made data scientist with more than a decade of experience working with many Fortune 500 companies enabling digital and AI transformations, specifically in machine learning-based demand forecasting. He is considered an expert, thought leader, and strong voice in the world of time series forecasting. Currently, Manu leads applied research at Thoucentric, where he advances research by bringing cutting-edge AI technologies to the industry. He is also an active open-source contributor and developed an open-source library—PyTorch Tabular—which makes deep learning for tabular data easy and accessible. Originally from Thiruvananthapuram, India, Manu currently resides in Bengaluru, India, with his wife and son
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Detecting and correcting for unit roots

Let’s talk about unit roots first since this is what is most commonly tested for stationarity. Time series analysis has its roots in econometrics and statistics and unit root is a concept derived directly from those fields.

Unit roots

Unit roots are quite complicated to understand fully but to develop some intuition, we can look at a simplification. Let’s consider an autoregressive model of order 1(AR(1) model):

If we think about the different values of in the equation, we can come up with three scenarios (Figure 7.2):

  • : When is greater than 1, every successive value in the time series is multiplied by a number greater than 1, which means it will have a strong and rapidly increasing/decreasing trend and thereby be non-stationary.
  • : When is less than 1, every successive value in the time series is multiplied by a number less than 1, which means over the long term, the mean of the series trends to zero...
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Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python
Published in: Nov 2022Publisher: PacktISBN-13: 9781803246802

Author (1)

author image
Manu Joseph

Manu Joseph is a self-made data scientist with more than a decade of experience working with many Fortune 500 companies enabling digital and AI transformations, specifically in machine learning-based demand forecasting. He is considered an expert, thought leader, and strong voice in the world of time series forecasting. Currently, Manu leads applied research at Thoucentric, where he advances research by bringing cutting-edge AI technologies to the industry. He is also an active open-source contributor and developed an open-source library—PyTorch Tabular—which makes deep learning for tabular data easy and accessible. Originally from Thiruvananthapuram, India, Manu currently resides in Bengaluru, India, with his wife and son
Read more about Manu Joseph