Conducting a Bayesian statistical analysis involves the following steps:
- Specifying a probability model: In this step, we fully describe the model using a probability distribution. Based on the distribution of a sample that we have taken, we try to fit a model to it and attempt to assign probabilities to unknown parameters.
- Calculating a posterior distribution: The posterior distribution is a distribution that we calculate in light of observed data. In this case, we will directly apply Bayes' formula. It will be specified as a function of the probability model that we specified in the previous step.
- Checking our model: This is a necessary step where we review our model and its outputs before we make inferences. Bayesian inference methods use probability distributions to assign probabilities to possible outcomes.
