Before moving forward, we must remind ourselves about the inherent stochasticity that lies embedded in market trends. Perhaps you are more of an efficient market hypothesis type of a person than an irrational market type. Whatever may be your personal convictions on the inner logic motivating stock movements, the reality of the matter is that there is a lot of randomness that often escapes even the most predictive of models. Investor behavior is hard to foresee, as investors tend to capitalize for various motives. Even general trends can be deceptive, as proven most recently by the Bitcoin asset bubble toward the end of 2017; many other examples exist (the 2008 global crisis, post-unrest inflation in Zimbabwe, the 1970s oil crisis, post-WWI Germany, the tulip mania during the Dutch golden age, and so forth, all the way back to antiquity).
In fact...
