Exercises
- Learn more about the other measures of accuracy provided by
forecast
function'saccuracy
function. What advantages does MAPE have over RMSE/MAE - Learn how to interpret the alpha, beta, gamma, (and sometimes phi) parameters of an ETS object. What does it mean to have a low beta parameter? Try to explicitly specify extreme values for some of these parameters using named arguments in the
ets
function. How does it affect the quality and dynamics of your forecasts? - The GitHub repository that we used to download some of the data sets in this chapter (and we will be using for different data sets for subsequent chapters, as well) also contains a data set containing Google searches for Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., what example series in this chapter does this most resemble? Is there seasonality in this series? If so, when do the spikes in searches occur? Why do you think that is? Take your best guess as to which particular ETS model
ets
would chose to describe this series. Try it for yourself...