You're reading from Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading - Second Edition

Product type Book

Published in Jul 2020

Publisher Packt

ISBN-13 9781839217715

Pages 822 pages

Edition 2nd Edition

Languages

Python

Concepts

Machine Learning

Author (1):

Stefan Jansen

Table of Contents (27) Chapters

Preface

1. Machine Learning for Trading – From Idea to Execution

2. Market and Fundamental Data – Sources and Techniques

3. Alternative Data for Finance – Categories and Use Cases

4. Financial Feature Engineering – How to Research Alpha Factors

5. Portfolio Optimization and Performance Evaluation

6. The Machine Learning Process

7. Linear Models – From Risk Factors to Return Forecasts

8. The ML4T Workflow – From Model to Strategy Backtesting

9. Time-Series Models for Volatility Forecasts and Statistical Arbitrage

10. Bayesian ML – Dynamic Sharpe Ratios and Pairs Trading

11. Random Forests – A Long-Short Strategy for Japanese Stocks

12. Boosting Your Trading Strategy

13. Data-Driven Risk Factors and Asset Allocation with Unsupervised Learning

14. Text Data for Trading – Sentiment Analysis

15. Topic Modeling – Summarizing Financial News

16. Word Embeddings for Earnings Calls and SEC Filings

17. Deep Learning for Trading

18. CNNs for Financial Time Series and Satellite Images

19. RNNs for Multivariate Time Series and Sentiment Analysis

20. Autoencoders for Conditional Risk Factors and Asset Pricing

21. Generative Adversarial Networks for Synthetic Time-Series Data

22. Deep Reinforcement Learning – Building a Trading Agent

23. Conclusions and Next Steps

24. References

25. Index

Appendix: Alpha Factor Library

Optimizing an NN for a long-short strategy

In practice, we need to explore variations for the design options for the NN architecture and how we train it from those we outlined previously because we can never be sure from the outset which configuration best suits the data. In this section, we will explore various architectures for a simple feedforward NN to predict daily stock returns using the dataset developed in Chapter 12 (see the notebook preparing_the_model_data in the GitHub directory for that chapter).

To this end, we will define a function that returns a TensorFlow model based on several architectural input parameters and cross-validate alternative designs using the MultipleTimeSeriesCV we introduced in Chapter 7, Linear Models – From Risk Factors to Return Forecasts. To assess the signal quality of the model predictions, we build a simple ranking-based long-short strategy based on an ensemble of the models that perform best during the in-sample cross-validation...