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Hands-On Predictive Analytics with Python

You're reading from   Hands-On Predictive Analytics with Python Master the complete predictive analytics process, from problem definition to model deployment

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Product type Paperback
Published in Dec 2018
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781789138719
Length 330 pages
Edition 1st Edition
Languages
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Author (1):
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Alvaro Fuentes Alvaro Fuentes
Author Profile Icon Alvaro Fuentes
Alvaro Fuentes
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Table of Contents (11) Chapters Close

Preface 1. The Predictive Analytics Process FREE CHAPTER 2. Problem Understanding and Data Preparation 3. Dataset Understanding – Exploratory Data Analysis 4. Predicting Numerical Values with Machine Learning 5. Predicting Categories with Machine Learning 6. Introducing Neural Nets for Predictive Analytics 7. Model Evaluation 8. Model Tuning and Improving Performance 9. Implementing a Model with Dash 10. Other Books You May Enjoy

Training versus testing error

The point of splitting the dataset into training and testing sets was to simulate the situation of using the model to make predictions on data the model has not seen. As we said before, the whole point is to generalize what we have learned from the observed data. The training MSE (or any metric calculated on the training dataset) may give us a biased view of the performance of our model, especially because of the possibility of overfitting. The metrics of performance we get from the training dataset will tend to be too optimistic. Let's take a look again at our illustration of overfitting:

If we calculate the training MSE for these three cases, we will definitely get the lowest one (hence the best) for the third model, the polynomial with 16 degrees; as we see, the model touches many points, making the error for those points exactly 0. However...

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